Reporting over the last few days related to battles around Basra, the Iraqi government’s decision to engage Shiite militias in general and the Mahdi Army in particular has essentially missed the point. The reporting is, as it has typically has been, out of the overall context that applies to specific occurrences on the ground or clouded by political agendas that inhibits or ignores contextual analysis.

The political context refers to one set of circumstances and emulates the tactics of another. The reference is the United States and the emulation focuses on Hamas and Hizb’Allah.

The militias, supported by Iran, have and will continue the effort to impact American public opinion and the American political process. They will do so with renewed violence and the generation of uncertainty over the success of current American and Iraqi efforts to establish overall security. They will further attempt to denigrate the status of Iraqi security forces by exposing their uneven, still embryonic stage of development.

The opposition militias and political organizations will take the example of Hizb’Allah and Hamas as they have, historically, related to Israel. The will continue to apply random violence to insure that positive movement is halted and perceptions altered. They, by now, know well the nature of the reporting from the region and will take advantage of the inherent tendencies of both the Arab, European and American media.

The situations addressed in this case relate to American status of force agreements, American politics, pending elections and Iraqi political reconciliation. The likelihood that Sunni’s will fully participate in the next round of elections is a further concern as extremist Shiite/Iranian factions see their political window of opportunity shrinking.   Add to that a movement in Iraq aimed at creating a new sense of balance between Islamic and secular concerns and extremists are beginning to sweat a bit.

What’s left? The Shiite factions will take the example of Hamas and Hizb’Allah. In each case where a potential peace deal with Israel was possible, terrorist violence exploded. Hamas and Hizb’Allah, committed to Israel’s destruction not to accommodation, insured ongoing political stalemates.  Fatah, unable or unwilling to contain the violence and control the factions repeatedly came to occupy the position of being viewed as a disingenuous peace partner. Violence equaled political instability and no peace deal.

Add the Al Qaeda factor:   Osama has recently extolled Saudi, Lebanese, Syrian and North African Jihadists to join the fight in Iraq NOW! He has defined it as the most important current battlefield for Islamist interests. He recognizes that the combined potential of evolving democracy, ongoing reconciliation, the continued success of the surge and native Iraqi security capabilities as an end game he may not be able to overcome. 

Osama is, once again, attempting to apply the lessons of Vietnam to today’s Iraq and win in the court of public opinion if not on the battlefield. Escalating random violence is his only potentially effective tool at this point in time.

We can expect, and should not be surprised by, increased violence over the next few weeks as the Shiite factions attempt to explode the progress made over the past seven months. This will not be a permanent state of affairs, but it could be a deadly one.

If militias such as the Mahdi Army want to explode progress and perceptions, they have to surface and fight to do so. It may look like a game of “Wack a Mole” for a time but the militias will soon face a choice between being destroyed, going back underground, being blamed for violence against civilians or joining the process of reconciliation. In the course of events, the first three possibilities will seriously damage the Iraqi perception of these militias, even from supporters. The third would add an important component to accelerating the political process. But, one way or another, the militias have to opt in or be dealt with militarily. It appears as if the Iraqi government is, finally, coming to that opinion after months of allowing themselves to be held partially hostage to the whims of Mr. Al Sadr (Mookie to the troops) and his Iranian sponsors.

Arabs, as well as anyone, maybe better, understand winners and losers, power and weakness. Iraqi’s have seen enough over the past five years to be cautious as to how they lay their win, place, show bets. They will be cautions in their judgments this time as well, will we?