This week the IAEA released another report on Iran’s nuclear programs, and ISIS (Institute for Science and International Security) has, thankfully, endeavored to interpret that report. 

The recent background to this, latest, IAEA report is twofold. The U.S. released to the IAEA intelligence material from a lap top computer reportedly smuggled out of Iran, which contains information related to nuclear weapons development including trajectories and altitude studies to determine the optimum characteristics for a nuclear explosion.

The U.S. further provided the IAEA with information that the U.S. believes links diverse component programs to an ongoing effort to develop nuclear warheads appropriate to existing Iranian mid-range missiles.

The “laptop documents” provided by the U.S. are referred to by the IAEA as the “alleged studies”. However, the IAEA report specifically supports the U.S. assessment of the documents inclusive of a schematic layout of the inner core of a re-entry vehicle. The IAEA assesses that the schematic is likely able to accommodate a nuclear device.

Additionally, an Iranian opposition group, the NCRI, also released new information. The NCRI was responsible for the first reports of the Iranian nuclear fuel program and the specific locations of the component parts of that program that began the current effort to identify the exact scope and intentions of the Iranian program.  

The new information from the NCRI features allegations that the nuclear warhead program is housed in a specified Iranian military base and that North Korean personnel are being bused to this high security facility. In the interest of general context, we now have reports of North Korean personnel being present in both Syria and Iran.

There are also questions related to specific points of procurement by the Iranians including: training courses on neutron calculations, effect of shock waves on metal, isotope separation, ballistic missiles, shock wave software and a variety of other procurements that could be used to design, evaluate and program nuclear devices. The IAEA refers to the procurement activities as “a matter of serious concern” in terms of the potential military dimension of Iranian nuclear activities. Serious indeed.

Iran responds! The need for shock wave software is related to the study of aircraft and automobile collisions, “airbags and the design of safety belts”. Interesting answer in light of the vast amount of open source material available for this particular discipline. 

The good news is that the Iranians continue to face technical problems with their P1 centrifuges and their technical performance with this equipment is below expectations. The bad news is that the are proceeding with the next generation centrifuge, the IR2, and that the initial cascade is up and running.

So worry not, the Iranians assure us that it’s not about nuclear weapons it’s about seat belts and airbags.

Sources:

Wall Street Journal, February 20, 2008

Associated Press, February 14, 2008

ISIS, February 22, 2008

IAEA, February 22, 2008