I wrote a rather critical posting here, and an opinion letter published in the Washington Times in December based on the last NIE (National Intelligence Estimate). That report essentially downplayed the Iranian nuclear threat.  My posting focused on an analysis of the illogic of the NIE, contrary opinions and the political motivations that the document appeared to represent.  

I, and many others with significantly more expertise, were aghast at the counter intuitive conclusions contained in the NIE. In the days following the issuance of the NIE many voices joined the chorus of criticism aimed at the NIE and it’s opinions of Iranian intentions and capabilities including: The IAEA, The Israeli Defense Minister, Ambassador Bolton, Yossi Klein Halevi, Gerald Steinberg, Michael Leeden, Youssef Ibrahim, Michael Rubin, Tim Shipman of the London Telegraph, The Mossad, Senator Kit Bond, Kenneth Timmerman, Alan Dershowitz, Daniel Pipes, Rafael Bardaj and many others.  

We now have the National Threat Assessment, which restates the conclusions of the reasonably well discredited NIE.  Let’s revisit some of the conclusions from the December NIE and look at just what has been reported this week. 

Some of the conclusions:  (Cut from the Original NIE word for word)

“We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons Program.”

“We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were

working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.”

“We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years.”

“We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

“Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.”

“By “nuclear weapons program” we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design

and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work.”

Now some of this weeks reporting, just this week:

Ø      Mr. McConnell in an effort to clarify the NIE during his testimony this week identified the enrichment stage of the three-stage process involved in developing a nuclear weapon as “the most difficult”.

Ø      The Associated Press reports that Iran has developed faster centrifuges called the IR2. This development would be, potentially, an improvement on A.Q. Kahn’s P2 centrifuge provided to Iran through his black market network.  AP reports that testing of the new device is in its early stages.  This development, assuming technical challenges are overcome, will vastly accelerate the ability to produce fissile material.

Ø      The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reports that Iran resumed work on the IR2 in early 2006.

Ø      Similar reports were filed by Reuters and the Vienna Press Agency.

Ø      French press sources report that Iran has increased production of UF6, aka Uranium Hexafluoride to 300 tons. UF6 is a precursor gas required for uranium enrichment.

Ø      Israel’s Mossad estimates that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon within three years.  The NIE estimated 2015.  The Mossad further contends that Iran may have generated a temporary halt in its nuclear program five years ago but it has since pressed ahead with uranium enrichment.  Israel has long warned U.S. intelligence that a covert, parallel enrichment program has been underway for some time.

Ø      Iran announced the launch of a new rocket it claimed was for putting a satellite into space.

Ø      Russia questioned the value of the rocket test and stated that it might be motivated to reassess its relationship with Iran relative to nuclear development.

Ø      France reported that the tested rocket is incapable of navigating in space and that the test “added to concerns that the technology is aimed at making weapons.”  A rocket that is incapable of navigating in space is really only useful for one purpose, weapons delivery.

Ø      A variety of reports indicates that the tested rocket is capable of reaching North Africa and Europe.

Ø      Meir Dagan, Mossad Director further stated that Iran’s allies, Syria and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah are also involved in development of rocket improvements. “Syria is improving its surface-to-surface missile system and today the quantity of missiles and rockets is twice as large as two years ago.”

The recent “re-justification” of the NIE conclusions aside, the symptomatic evidence continues to argue that Iran is aggressively pursuing enrichment activities and developing the capabilities to deliver the eventual fruits of those processes, a nuclear weapon.

If indeed, as Iran has argued, their nuclear program is peaceful, it is difficult to understand the need for a “dumb” rocket capable of reaching European capitals, but not capable of putting a satellite into orbit!  It is also difficult to explain the need for the new centrifuge considering the investment of time, money and expertise required to upgrade from the P2.  The existing P2 centrifuges are easily capable of producing fuel appropriate to a peaceful use power plant.  The existence of enhanced capability can only mean that a rush to highly enriched uranium is well underway.