A smiling Mohamed El Baradei of the IAEA and an equally gleeful President Ahmadinejad met once again yesterday for continuing talks about Iran’s Nuclear Program.

Looking back on the timelines related to Iranian nuclear development provides some sense of context.  By my count, over the last 4 years, there have been:

Ø      Eight IAEA Reports on Iran’s program of, admittedly, varied tone and content

Ø      Five IAEA Resolutions calling for Iran to stop enrichment activities

Ø      Three UN Security Council Resolutions of similar intent

Ø      Between four and eight points of non compliance by Iran related to existing agreements and protocols

Ø      Eight broken deals with Russia, The EU and the IAEA

Ø      Two resumptions of suspended inspections

Ø      Two reports indicating the presence of highly enriched uranium

Ø      Two rounds of sanctions

Ø      Three years of negotiations with the EU

Ø      Uncounted declarations by Iran that they WILL proceed with their nuclear program and that they will do so without regard to outside influences.

The latest of the above litany has the IAEA, in May 2007, stating that Iran has “continued to defy” UN Security Council demands for a halt to uranium enrichment and has, in point of fact, expanded the effort.  The IAEA added that its ability to monitor nuclear activities in Iran has “declined due to lack of access to potential sites” related to nuclear development.

I’m all for hanging in there but where is the negotiated end game?  The IAEA is ineffective due to the manner of its organization, its mandate and the persistent opinion that somehow, someway negotiations will generate the desired result.  The IAEA occupies this point of optimism despite all evidence to the contrary.  The UN Security Council is hobbled by the persistent refusal by Russia and China to bring additional economic pressure on Iran. 

The EU Three were confident that if the negotiations were left to them their more sophisticated negotiating skills (as compared to the US, of course) could convince Iran to come to heel.  Iran rejected all combinations of carrots and sticks even when the deals were mostly carrots.  The EU Three spent three years negotiating with Iran only to be thanked by Iran in the end for helping to buy three years of time and space to continue to develop their nuclear program. 

I understand why President Ahmadinejad is smiling but for the life of me, I cannot understand why Mr. El Baradei is!