ABANDON THE FICTIONS:

D.E. Landry

December 3, 2007

It is past time that we can afford to be guided by hope as opposed difficult realities.  What follows are just 11 issues of many that represent significant challenges demand our commitment.  The inability or reluctance to address these issues will guarantee poor policy decisions, pool planning and more not less problems. 

1. Pakistan is a reluctant, conflicted ally at best.  The evidence of Pak benign neglect relative to the terrorist infrastructure is extensive and convincing as is evidence of the ISI’s continuing relationships with and support for key Islamist leaders and functionaries.  We’ve been denied access to A.Q. Khan and questions related to what remains of his illegal proliferation network remain unanswered.  Pakistan does the exact minimum of what they “have” to do to maintain U.S. financial support.  Complex politics in Pakistan aside the facts remain.  The most recent evidence of the conflicted approach is Pakistan’s release of Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, former Taliban Defense Minister for Mullah Omar. Concerns that Pakistan could easily tilt toward Islamist political control remain valid and represent the most significant threat to global security we have seen in decades.

2. Russia can no longer be considered an ally of any kind. Russia is careening toward a return to totalitarian rule under Mr. Putin.  The era of strongman rule in Russia has been a fact for some years and will be well into the future.  The absolute refusal of Russia to participate in containing Iran, its recalcitrant attitudes in the U.N. and insistence on positions at polar opposites to the U.S. on a wide variety of issues is evidence enough.  Do the Russians have, from their point of view, reasons for opposition to the U.S.?  Yes, they do, but that does not abrogate the facts about current Russian positions and intentions from our point of view. Our point of view matters and it should matter unapologetically.

3. The North Koreans do not intend to give up nuclear programs.  They may intend to export them but by no means do they intend to give them up.  History predicts what can be reasonably expected in the immediate future from Dear Leader.  The six party talks have been the rough equivalent of the EU’s effort to contain Iran.

4. The expectation that China will intervene in a significant way with North Korea ignores China’s interests. China has no intention of removing the North Korean buffer to the democratic, capitalistic South.  Furthermore China has no interest in Korean reunification and no interest in a thriving democracy on it’s boarder in the event of unlikely reunification.  The expectation that China will chose a long-term policy of benign semi-capitalism is also misplaced.  China will remain benign only as long as it is in its interest to do so.  They will remain benign only as long as they can secure their energy flow.  Consider China’s recent strategic partnerships Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Syria. If the enemy of my enemy is my friend does it also hold that the friend of my enemy is my enemy?  Additionally, the confluence of Chinese and Russian positions in the U.N. is frightening.  Add to that the dramatic growth of Chinese military spending and the intention to maintain that growth argues against a continued “benign” strategic approach by China.  Simply ask, exactly what threats does China see that justifies the growth of an already massive military infrastructure?  Ask yourself further what the testing of a “mine” designed for low earth orbit capable of destroying communication satellites might have as its goal? Benign?

5. Middle East Peace deals.  The fiction continues!  The numbers of irreconsible positions that exist between Israel and the Arabs have and will continue to be both undeniable and untenable.  The wide variety of “Peace Talks” over the years have proven, beyond doubt, that talks are nothing more than an effort to provide political cover, demonize Israel, create new flows of “aid” and buy time. Why not, it’s working.  Western Europe is firmly in support of Arab positions as is the U.N. and a majority of the third world.  Islamist regimes and non-state actors continue to call for the destruction of Israel and they have proven, historically, that they have the capability to kill any deal agreed to by the parties.  There is almost as much venom directed at Palestinian leaders that engage in “Peace Talks” as there is against the U.S. and Israel.  Exactly where might the common ground for an agreement that all factions in the Middle East could support exist.  Middle Eastern states are prepared to continue the fight they have waged for decades, right down to the last Palestinian, but no further.  A deal in Palestine removes a variety of primary political motivations that the Arab states have counted on for years.  A resolution of the “Palestinian issue” is simply not in Arab  interests. For years the Arab political structure has convinced many, notably the EU, that no other issue can be engaged until the “Palestinian Issue” is resolved.  This position has served as cover for the many inequities and institutional corruptions that exist in Middle Eastern states.  Resolution of the “Palestinian Issue” opens the door to engagement of issues that Arab states do not want engaged.

6. The strategic influence of Islamist thinking grows throughout the Middle East.  This influence will eventually turn to democratic movements to secure its place in the body politic.  We’ve already seen this trend in Palestine and Lebanon.  It will continue in Egypt and in North Africa generally.  The Islamists see clearly that this is their most likely path to power as evidenced in the carefully orchestrated and successful running of a limited number of candidates by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and by Hamas in Palestine and by Hizballah in Lebanon. .

7. Western Europe is “swirling the drain”.  The growing influence of Islamists, the refusal to revise immigration policies and the demand by the Social Democrats that Muslim sensibilities be appeased, understood, accepted and considered as  equivalent to traditional western values is undeniable: there are massive political infrastructures dedicated to this proposition such as the Euro Arab Dialogue (EAD).  Demographic analysis and projection of population trends in Europe is also undeniable.  Within a generation of two, assuming no change in European policies there will be controlling Muslim voting blocks in at least six European nations.  In northern Europe, the “We’ll be in charge by 2030” tee shirt is a common fashion choice by young Muslim men.

8. Terror infrastructure is an undeniably global issue.  There is no region on earth where you can confidently say that terrorism is not an issue or is not a threat.  Hell, even China has made terror related arrests.

9. State sponsors of terror are now creating alliances within our hemisphere such as Iran and Venezuela and Iran and Cuba.  The Ciudad del Este region in Paraguay near the boarders of Argentina and Brazil and known as the Tri-Boarder area has long been know as an outpost for terrorist infrastructure in South America. Reports indicate that elements from Hezbollah, al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, Hamas, and the Lebanese Drug mafia operate in partnership, freely and openly in conjunction with local organized crime and corrupt government officials.  The estimated Islamic population of the region is 750,000!

10. Iran.  Iran has executed a brilliant series of moves to buy time for it’s nuclear program to mature. Iran has played the EU and by extension us as we agreed to the fiction that the EU could “talk Iran out of it’s nuclear program”.  There can be no doubt about Iranian intentions. Iran has made these intentions clear in a series of public pronouncements. They have essentially thanked the EU for it’s naiveté in the famous EU Three negotiations.  This series of negotiations and broken promises provided three years of space for the Iranians.  The “negotiations” were nothing more than stylized appeasement of Iranian objectives under the belief that just a few more “carrots” would turn the trick.  The most recent meeting with special EU/UN envoy Javier Solana is typical and consistent with the impact of the EU Three process.  When questioned after the most recent failure(11/20/07) to negotiate a deal to avoid additional sanctions the Iranian negotiator was asked about the impact of the current sanctions.  The response was typical of Iranian responses over the past three years.  "Nothing, no impact. In fact, we made the greatest technology headway and breakthroughs in that specific period of time."  Add to that the essential truism that Iran is the most significant state sponsor of terrorism on the globe!  The Iranians have begun to see declining returns on their terrorist investment making their ascendancy to a nuclear state even more important. 

11. Finally, and perhaps most critically our traditional alliances are simply not, what the average American expects of alliances.  The fact is that America and Western Europe do not share an alliance based on common values any more.  We are prepared to confront evil, Europe is only prepared to talk to it.  Kosovo provides sufficient evidence of EU effectiveness in the face of tyranny and mass murder.  There are volumes of information to evidence the almost endemic and frequently mindless persistence of anti Americanism in Western Europe.  Why? Because the political class and European journalism have pounded this theme for decades.  European anti Americanism is a complex subject but the fact of it cannot be denied.  If you think, our media needs work, take a look at European media and be happy for what little objectivity we have.  Free speech in Europe is in jeopardy to political correctness to a degree that, personally, I found unimaginable until I engaged the subject seriously.  The growing appeasement of Islamic demands is, to most Americans, nearly incomprehensible.  The riots in Paris should be a surprise to no one.  If anyone should understand the dynamics of what of behaviors grow out of appeasement the Europeans should, but they do not.  The riots are also evidence of the free speech issues, aforementioned.  The riots are by “youths” not Muslim youths although anyone who has studied the issue knows exactly who the “youths” are.  The Western European attitude seems to alternate between blaming the victims of the “youths” for a lack of sensitivity and of course American policy in the Middle East.  The EU has banned the use of the words Islamists or Terrorists to describe, yes, wait for it….. Islamists and Terrorists.  Our view of democracy and theirs are as far removed from each other as our view of sacrifice for ideals, confronting evil and the dangers of appeasement.  Our willingness to sacrifice blood and treasure to help others attain what we most value for ourselves, freedom is simply not a concept to which the average Western European can relate. It does not fit into the generally accepted post Marxian analysis of what motivates democratic, capitalistic nations.  It is an unfortunate commentary on how different we have truly become.

This list could go on to include a restructuring of American Military doctrine for the immediate future, the fecklessness of the U.N., internal American political dynamics as they relate to the war and terrorism, the impact of a failed energy policy, the intelligence debate, American debt held oversees especially in China, balance of trade deficits, the dollar and the early warning signals that what Islamists have accomplished in Europe has begun here.

Some of these issues we can engage, or try to, others must be resolved by the involved parties.  What we can do is to disregard fictional beliefs based on hope and the veil of partisanship and deal with the plethora of realities as they exist.  We can speak up to power as to what our priorities should be.  We can insist that these issues be engaged.  We can attack those that would “sweeten” the issues with platitudes and vague representations of engagement.  We can insist that we learn from the mistakes of others as well as our own. 

We can face the unforgiving realities that face us.