Dancing with Mahmoud

I would like to ask the faculty and students of Columbia which of the two following Options they would support;

Option 1:  Support the dissident movement in Iran.  Send them the message that their freedom is worth the fight and that we will stand with them.  Support them with a return to a strategy of information delivery, international pressure for human rights, and a clear message from the democratic world that we believe in the inherent capabilities of the Iranian people.  Or…………

Option 2: Military action to insure, at least, a postponement of the current nuclear  program and punishment of the current regime,  Economic sanctions that destabilize an an economy already swirling the drain and not have any impact on the ruling elite.

I’m fairly confident that Option 1 would receive unanimous support.  The disconnect is that the actions of Columbia have provided a significant setback to Option 1 even were it to be considered.

Why? 

In the first case you can be assured that the video tape of the Columbia appearance will be seriously edited for domestic consumption in Iran.  The edited tape will serve the interests of the current regime.  They will show our dance with Mahmoud, the applause, the insults by the déclassé Americans and make it clear that Mahmoud has the support of Americans everywhere.  There really can be no other anticipation of what the spin will be keeping in mind the number of opposition media outlets that have been closed down in the past two years, the number of those imprisoned for positions contrary to the regime, the reduction of broadband accessibility and the number of outright political prisoners.  There will be no video tape of demonstrations or of confrontation.  Just applause from those gathered at Mahmoud’s dance party.

In the second case is the message to the Iranian people.  “There is no support for you in America”, “The policies of Mahmoud are supported by the American academic elite.”  “You are alone” and without so much as moral support!  You know, all the stuff necessary for Option 1.

There is an endemic opinion amongst the Iranian people that nothing of significance happens without U.S. involvement.  There is an overestimation of our ability to affect events, but it is there.  Any variety of experts and analysis left and right has reported thiss dynamic.  They are looking for us but they can’t find us.

Our criminal failure to say clearly to the Iranian people that “we’re with you” will, despite, the significant courage and sacrifice by those selfsame Iranian people make them question the often stated values of the U.S. and what our “true” commitment to democratic reform is.  Add that to the anticipation of what the edited video tape from Columbia will look like and a fairly clear picture emerges.

Columbia has, to be kind, unwittingly cut the knees out of what should be the correct strategy for dealing with the Iranian regime, a strategy they would likely support.  A strategy of proactive support for the dissident movements in Iran.  It is and always has been a consistent failure of the left to anticipate consequences.  This situation is no different. 

We know how to do this.  We know how to support dissident movements.  We have done it in Eastern Europe, Russia, Central and South America.  The end of the Cold War was as much about Lech Walensa and the rise of courageous dissident movements as it was about the guarantee of mutually assured destruction. 

We know how to deliver information to populations under tyranny.  We know how to get them funding.  We know how to deliver, at the very least, the message that we’re with you.  It’s a shame that, instead of delivering that message we’re dancing with Mahmoud.